Impacto do investimento público e do investimento direto estrangeiro na economia de Moçambique, 1995-2017
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2022
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Com esta reflexão pretende-se demonstrar que o investimento em Moçambique apesar de
muitos instrumentos de programação e planificação, não passam de meras intenções, pois
ele apresenta-se em contraciclo, é evidente que o governo tem optado em desinvestir em
áreas consideradas chave (Infraestruturas, Agricultura, I&D, Tecnologia). É notória a
aposta do governo apenas na indústria extrativa, com um aumento do IDE contra a
redução do investimento público. Logo, este último torna-se um fator de impacto negativo
ou insignificante, deixando a economia debilitada em função de terceiros, pois quando o
governo se focaliza apenas na indústria extrativa, evidentemente que base da sua
exportação são as commodities, e isso traz repercussões estruturais na economia de um
país, uma vez que os preços destes produtos são definidos no mercado internacional, e
nos últimos 5 anos temos verificado uma redução significativa das receitas dos países
exportadores de matérias primas, logo o PIB real vai decrescendo, como se constata desde
2016, como resultado da redução de receitas obtidas das exportações destes produtos.
Em suma, é urgente uma mudança de paradigma nas áreas de investimento, pesquisa e
desenvolvimento, tecnologia, e outras de conhecimento, diversificando a economia, pois
como se sabe, apesar do IDE ser um financiamento importante, este por si só, não gera
riqueza na economia. Associando a estas questões, os investidores beneficiam de isenções
ficais de médio e longo prazo o que se traduz em menos ganhos para a economia nacional.
Existem outros fatores que não abonam a favor de Moçambique, nomeadamente, a
instabilidade política e a má gestão das finanças públicas, com as descobertas das dívidas
ilegais no passado recente entre 2013-2015, que originou desconfiança e afastamento de
muitos parceiros programáticos do orçamento do Estado e credores/financiadores da
economia, gerou-se algumas dificuldades para o refinanciamento da sua economia
entrando em default em 2017. Quanto ao investimento público, não tem correspondido
ao que tem sido planeado nos instrumentos de planificação, deveria ser em áreas
produtivas de modo a acrescentar valor ao IDE desenvolvendo o setor secundário e
consequentemente o impacto do IDE com os investimentos adequados em áreas chave da
economia, tornaria a economia mais robusta e consistente com uma trajetória melhor de
crescimento.
This document intends to demonstrate that investment in Mozambique, despite many programming and planning tools, is not more than mere intentions, as it presents itself in a counter-cycle, it is evident that the government has chosen to divest in areas considered to be key (I&D, technology, agriculture, infrastructure). The government’s bet on the extractive industry is notorious, with an increase in FDI against the reduction of public investment, so the latter becomes a factor of negative or insignificant impact, leaving the economy weakened due to third parties, because when the government focuses only on the extractive industry, evidently the basis of its exportation is commodities, and this has structural repercussions on the economy of a country, since the prices of these products are defined in the international market, and in the last 3 years of the period under analysis we have seen a reduction significant increase in revenues from countries exporting raw material, so real GDP is decreasing, as seen since 2016, as result of the reduction in revenues obtained from exports of these products. In general, a there is an urgent need for a paradigm shift in the areas of investment, research and development, technology, and other areas of knowledge, diversifying the economy, as we know, although FDI is an important financing, this in itself does not generate wealth in economy. In association with these issues, investors benefit from tax exemptions in medium and long term, which translates in less gains for the national economy. There are other factors that do not pay in favor of Mozambique, namely, political instability and poor management of public finances, with the discoveries of illegal debts in the recent past in 2015, which caused mistrust and withdrawal of a lot of programmatic partners from the state budget and creditors /financiers of the economy, there were some difficulties for the refinancing of its economy, going into default in 2017. As for public investment, it has not corresponded to what has been planned, it should be in productive areas in order to add value to FDI by developing the secondary sector and consequently the impact of the FDI with adequate investments in key areas of the economy would make her robust and consistent with a better growth trajectory.
This document intends to demonstrate that investment in Mozambique, despite many programming and planning tools, is not more than mere intentions, as it presents itself in a counter-cycle, it is evident that the government has chosen to divest in areas considered to be key (I&D, technology, agriculture, infrastructure). The government’s bet on the extractive industry is notorious, with an increase in FDI against the reduction of public investment, so the latter becomes a factor of negative or insignificant impact, leaving the economy weakened due to third parties, because when the government focuses only on the extractive industry, evidently the basis of its exportation is commodities, and this has structural repercussions on the economy of a country, since the prices of these products are defined in the international market, and in the last 3 years of the period under analysis we have seen a reduction significant increase in revenues from countries exporting raw material, so real GDP is decreasing, as seen since 2016, as result of the reduction in revenues obtained from exports of these products. In general, a there is an urgent need for a paradigm shift in the areas of investment, research and development, technology, and other areas of knowledge, diversifying the economy, as we know, although FDI is an important financing, this in itself does not generate wealth in economy. In association with these issues, investors benefit from tax exemptions in medium and long term, which translates in less gains for the national economy. There are other factors that do not pay in favor of Mozambique, namely, political instability and poor management of public finances, with the discoveries of illegal debts in the recent past in 2015, which caused mistrust and withdrawal of a lot of programmatic partners from the state budget and creditors /financiers of the economy, there were some difficulties for the refinancing of its economy, going into default in 2017. As for public investment, it has not corresponded to what has been planned, it should be in productive areas in order to add value to FDI by developing the secondary sector and consequently the impact of the FDI with adequate investments in key areas of the economy would make her robust and consistent with a better growth trajectory.
Descrição
Orientação: Eduardo Moraes Sarmento
Palavras-chave
MESTRADO EM ECONOMIA, ECONOMIA, CRESCIMENTO ECONÓMICO, INVESTIMENTOS PÚBLICOS, INVESTIMENTOS EXTERNOS, EXPORTAÇÕES, TECNOLOGIA, PIB, ECONOMY, ECONOMIC GROWTH, EXTERNAL INVESTMENTS, EXPORTS, TECHNOLOGY, GDP, MOÇAMBIQUE, MOZAMBIQUE