O crescimento económico em Portugal na actual crise financeira
Miniatura indisponível
Ficheiros
Data
2015
Autores
Título da revista
ISSN da revista
Título do Volume
Editora
Resumo
A crise chegou aos Estados Unidos da América em 2006. Os motivos que conduziram à crise na secção imobiliária foram: a fraca fiscalização, modificações na regulação financeira, accções desenvolvidas por parte do governo norte-americano para ampliar o número de proprietários de uma habitação, a fraca gestão, corrupção e venda de acções enganosas pelos bancos. As razões macroeconómicas são o excesso de procura de capital para ser investido, o excesso de poupança de países consequentes, de países produtores de petróleo e as baixas taxas de juro dadas pelo governo norte-americano. Em 2008 estes factos estenderam-se a Portugal e à UE.
A metodologia usada assenta na aplicação do Eviews6, com o contributo para a área de investigação de um modelo econométrico apresentado com variáveis explicativas do desenvolvimento sustentável, permitindo investigar o seu impato na Quota de Exportação como variável explicada, para o caso português entre 1980 e 2011.
As principais conclusões assentam na análise econométrica, provando que a subida da Quota de Exportação tem uma relação positiva com o Consumo Privado Total. O Consumo Privado Total tem um resultado pouco significativo na Quota de Exportação. O consumo estimula a produção de bens e serviços, pelo que o seu excedente é exportado. O nivel de desenvolvimento nacional está correlacionado de forma negativa com os esforços das Receitas da Administração Pública. A autonomia financeira é pouco significativa e não está dependente, apenas das exportações, a sua variação de crescimento mostra-se muito baixa. Portugal tem capacidade para criar a suas próprias receitas, assente na procura e esforço fiscal interno, permitindo uma fraca descentralização.
Na minha opinião as estratégias para tirar Portugal da crise são o aumento da inovação, por parte das empresas para aumentarem a competitividade e o emprego, reduzindo-lhes e isentando-as da taxa de IRC. É necessário baixar o IVA em geral, não baixar a taxa salarial para subir o poder de compra e o consumo. É preciso apostar na Governança. Os Estados-Membros da UE, a nível político, têm de ser coordenados como uma única região de poder central.
The subprime crisis arrived at the United States of America in 2006. The reasons which lead to the subprime crisis in the real estate were: weak oversight, changes in financial regulation, actions by the U.S. Government to increase the number of owners of a dwelling, poor management, corruption and sale of misleading actions by banks. The macroeconomic reasons are excess of demand for capital to be invested, the savings from glutting countries, consequent oil producing countries and low interest by the U.S. government. In 2008 these events have spread to Portugal and European Union. The methodology consists of applying Eviews6, with the contribution to the research area of an econometric model presented with explanatory variables of sustainable development, allowing you to investigate their impact on Export Quota as explained variable, for the Portuguese case between 1980 and 2011. The main conclusions, based on econometric analysis proving that the increase in export share has a positive relationship with the Private Consumption Total. Private Consumption Total has some significant results in the Export Quota. The consumption stimulates the production of goods and services, so their surplus is exported. The level of national development is correlated negatively with the efforts of Revenue Public Administration. The financial autonomy is insignificant and does not depend only on exports, its growth variation observed to be very low. Portugal has the ability to create your own recipes, based on demand and domestic fiscal effort, allowing a weak decentralization. In my opinion the strategies for taking Portugal out of the crisis are increasing innovation by companies to increase competitiveness and employment, reducing and exempting them of ITLP. It’s necessary to low VAT in general, not to low wage rate to raise the purchasing power and consumption. It’s need to bet on Governance. Member States of the EU, at political level, must be coordinated as a single region of central power.
The subprime crisis arrived at the United States of America in 2006. The reasons which lead to the subprime crisis in the real estate were: weak oversight, changes in financial regulation, actions by the U.S. Government to increase the number of owners of a dwelling, poor management, corruption and sale of misleading actions by banks. The macroeconomic reasons are excess of demand for capital to be invested, the savings from glutting countries, consequent oil producing countries and low interest by the U.S. government. In 2008 these events have spread to Portugal and European Union. The methodology consists of applying Eviews6, with the contribution to the research area of an econometric model presented with explanatory variables of sustainable development, allowing you to investigate their impact on Export Quota as explained variable, for the Portuguese case between 1980 and 2011. The main conclusions, based on econometric analysis proving that the increase in export share has a positive relationship with the Private Consumption Total. Private Consumption Total has some significant results in the Export Quota. The consumption stimulates the production of goods and services, so their surplus is exported. The level of national development is correlated negatively with the efforts of Revenue Public Administration. The financial autonomy is insignificant and does not depend only on exports, its growth variation observed to be very low. Portugal has the ability to create your own recipes, based on demand and domestic fiscal effort, allowing a weak decentralization. In my opinion the strategies for taking Portugal out of the crisis are increasing innovation by companies to increase competitiveness and employment, reducing and exempting them of ITLP. It’s necessary to low VAT in general, not to low wage rate to raise the purchasing power and consumption. It’s need to bet on Governance. Member States of the EU, at political level, must be coordinated as a single region of central power.
Descrição
Orientação: Luis Jorge Costa
Palavras-chave
MESTRADO EM ECONOMIA, ECONOMIA, CRISES FINANCEIRAS, ANÁLISE ECONÓMICA, ECONOMETRIA, MERCADO IMOBILIÁRIO, TAXAS DE JURO, ESTRATÉGIA, PORTUGAL, ECONOMY, FINANCIAL CRISIS, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, ECONOMETRICS, REAL ESTATE MARKET, INTEREST RATES, STRATEGY