População em Moçambique: os efeitos do VIH/SIDA
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Data
2008
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Edições Universitárias Lusófonas
Resumo
As Nações Unidas consideraram que, a 12 de Outubro de 1999, a humanidade
teria atingido os seis mil milhões de indivíduos.
No entanto, contava-se que, por exemplo, em Moçambique, a população
deveria ultrapassar, por essa altura, os 19 milhões de habitantes. Quando, ao
contrário de todas as estimativas, segundo os dados do Censo de 1997, a
população moçambicana andava apenas pelos 16 milhões. E algo de
semelhante aconteceu noutros países africanos, onde a população recenseada
ficou muito aquém do esperado.
Daí que a data apontada pelas Nações Unidas para os 6 mil milhões de
pessoas sobre a Terra deva ser vista apenas como meramente simbólica, uma
vez que a referida cifra só deve ter sido alcançada uns anos mais tarde.
Entre as várias explicações para as discrepâncias apontadas, penso que a
principal variável a ter em conta é o efeito do VIH/SIDA. De facto, de há uns
anos a esta parte, começa a ser aceite pela generalidade das agências
internacionais que o factor SIDA fez cair drasticamente a esperança média de
vida à nascença e o respectivo crescimento populacional na África sub-sariana,
Moçambique incluído.
São os efeitos desse factor que me proponho aqui analisar.
The United Nations considered that in October 12, 1999, the humanity would have reached the six billions of individuals. However, it was supposed that, for example, in Mozambique, the population should surpass, at that moment, the 19 million inhabitants. When, unlike all the estimates, according to the data of the Census of 1997, the population of Mozambique was about 16 million. And the same happened at other African countries, where the population was less than the expected. So, the date pointed by the United Nations for the 6 billions of people on the Earth should be seen merely symbolic, once the referred cipher only have been reached some years later on. Among the several explanations for the pointed discrepancies, I think that the main variable to be considered is the effect of HIV/AIDS. Indeed, it begins to be accepted for the generality of the international agencies that the AIDS made to fall drastically the life expectancy and the respective population growth in the sub-Saharan Africa, included Mozambique.
The United Nations considered that in October 12, 1999, the humanity would have reached the six billions of individuals. However, it was supposed that, for example, in Mozambique, the population should surpass, at that moment, the 19 million inhabitants. When, unlike all the estimates, according to the data of the Census of 1997, the population of Mozambique was about 16 million. And the same happened at other African countries, where the population was less than the expected. So, the date pointed by the United Nations for the 6 billions of people on the Earth should be seen merely symbolic, once the referred cipher only have been reached some years later on. Among the several explanations for the pointed discrepancies, I think that the main variable to be considered is the effect of HIV/AIDS. Indeed, it begins to be accepted for the generality of the international agencies that the AIDS made to fall drastically the life expectancy and the respective population growth in the sub-Saharan Africa, included Mozambique.
Descrição
Africanologia : Revista Lusófona de Estudos Africanos
Palavras-chave
AFRICANOLOGIA, DEMOGRAFIA, SIDA, MOÇAMBIQUE, AFRICAN CULTURAL STUDIES, DEMOGRAPHY, AIDS, MOZAMBIQUE, ESTUDOS LUSÓFONOS, ESTUDOS AFRICANOS, HIV, CENSOS, MOZAMBIQUE, LUSOPHONE STUDIES, AFRICAN STUDIES, HIV, CENSUS