The effects of public credit guarantee on Portuguese SMEs
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Data
2023
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Resumo
O objetivo desse trabalho é medir a eficiência do Programa Português de Crédito
com Garantia Mútua. O texto discute o impacto da adicionalidade económica no
contexto português para PME em relação à receita, salários (emprego), exportação e
investimento. A análise utiliza o método de propensity-score matching estimators e
Difference in Differences regression em uma amostra de 4.700 PME entre 2003 e 2018. No
geral, o impacto é positivo em 3 das 4 hipóteses, mas não relevante em todos eles. Em termos
de receita o impacto é significativamente negativo após o empréstimo, enquanto investimento
mostra um grande impacto positivo, e emprego e exportação demonstram impactos positivos,
mas pouco relevantes em relação aos anos seguintes após o empréstimo. Esses resultados
corroboram outros diversos artigos sobre esse tema em que não há consenso e colabora para a
literatura de Crédito com Garantia Pública para PME.
Palavras-chave: Crédito com Garantia Mútua, difference-in-differences, PME,
adicionalidade econômica
The aim of this thesis is to evaluate the effectiveness of the Portuguese Credit Guarantee Scheme. The paper examines the economic additionality impact of the programme in the Portuguese context for SME firms in terms of revenue, salaries (employment), exports and investment. The analysis uses propensity score matching estimators and difference-in-differences regression on a sample of 4,700 SME firms between 2003 and 2018. Overall, the impact is positive for the four hypotheses, but less relevant for some of them. Revenue shows a significant negative impact after the loan, while investment has a large positive result and employment and exports have positive but small impacts in the years following the treatment period. It corroborates several other similar articles on the subject, where there is no consensus, and collaborates with the literature on credit guarantee schemes. Key-words: Credit guarantee, difference-in-differences, SMEs, economic additionality
The aim of this thesis is to evaluate the effectiveness of the Portuguese Credit Guarantee Scheme. The paper examines the economic additionality impact of the programme in the Portuguese context for SME firms in terms of revenue, salaries (employment), exports and investment. The analysis uses propensity score matching estimators and difference-in-differences regression on a sample of 4,700 SME firms between 2003 and 2018. Overall, the impact is positive for the four hypotheses, but less relevant for some of them. Revenue shows a significant negative impact after the loan, while investment has a large positive result and employment and exports have positive but small impacts in the years following the treatment period. It corroborates several other similar articles on the subject, where there is no consensus, and collaborates with the literature on credit guarantee schemes. Key-words: Credit guarantee, difference-in-differences, SMEs, economic additionality
Descrição
Orientação: Ana Isabel Gonçalves da Costa Lorga da Silva
Palavras-chave
MESTRADO EM ECONOMIA, ECONOMIA, ECONOMY, CRÉDITO, CREDIT, PME, SME, GARANTIAS DE CRÉDITO, CREDIT GUARANTEES