A Crise na República Helénica em 2012 : contributos para a sua compreensão
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2015
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A presente Tese de Mestrado tem como principal objetivo contribuir para a compreensão da crise na República Helénica (RH), mais especificamente, os seus antecedentes, a sua caraterização macroeconómica e de finanças públicas, o seu enquadramento na União Económica e Monetária (UEM) e as principais consequências na mesma, principalmente, nos países da Europa do Sul e da Irlanda, bem como no seio da União Europeia (UE) e da UEM. Durante um período de doze anos, 2000 a 2011, na RH, os indicadores macroeconómicos, mais especificamente, o consumo privado cresceu a uma taxa real anual de +1,3 % enquanto, paralelamente, o rendimento disponível decresceu a uma taxa real anual de -0,58%. O investimento diminuiu, o desemprego aumentou, foi necessário mais despesa pública, tendo a receita pública diminuido, simultaneamente e, como consequência, o saldo orçamental em percentagem do PIB ficou incomportavelmente deficitário. O Estado Grego teve que recorrer ao endividamento, culminando numa espiral que originou o pedido de auxílio internacional ao Banco Central Europeu (BCE), à UE e ao FMI. O problema em análise prende-se em compreender como foi possível a Grécia atingir uma dívida pública que atualmente já perfaz cerca de 170% do PIB do país e, quais serão as principais formas de evolução e consequências no contexto da UEM e da UE. Para esse efeito, foi aplicado um questionário online e foram inquiridos especialistas de Economia e Finanças Públicas da Europa do Sul e Central. Os resultados provam que existem dois grupos distintos de experts que se distinguem, não apenas pelas suas caraterísticas socio-económicas e geográficas, mas também pelas atitudes e conhecimentos referentes à origem, à gestão, à importância relativa que atribuem às diferentes regras orçamentais e às soluções potenciais bem como ao futuro da Grécia no seio da UEM. De igual forma, os resultados da quantificação prospetiva efetuada para a correção dos desequilíbrios como o saldo orçamental e dívida pública, em percentagem do PIB, a RH necessita de um período nunca inferior a cinquenta anos para voltar a recuperar a independência e a soberania nacionais.
This Master Thesis aims to contribute to understanding the crisis in Greece, more specifically, their background, their macroeconomic and public finance characteristics, its framing in Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the main consequences mainly in the countries of southern Europe and Ireland, as well as within the EU and EMU. During a period of twelve years (2000-2011), the Hellenic Republic, macroeconomic indicators, more specifically, private consumption grew at a real annual rate of 1.3% while disposable income decreased at an real annual rate of -0.58%. The investment decreased, unemployment increased, it was necessary more public spending, with public revenue declining, and simultaneously, as a consequence, the budget balance (deficit) as a percentage of GDP rose sharply, the Greek State had to borrow up, culminating in a spiral originated the request for a bail-out to the ECB, the EU and the IMF. The problem in question relates to understanding how Greece could reach a public debt that is currently already about 170% of GDP of the country, and what are the main forms of evolution and consequences in the context of EMU and EU. To this end, a questionnaire was administered online and respondents were specialists of Economy and Public Finance of South and Central Europe. The results show that there are two distinct groups of experts who are distinguished not only by their socio-economic and geographical characteristics, but also by the attitudes and knowledge concerning the origin, management, the relative importance they attach to different fiscal rules and potential solutions as well as the future of Greece within the EMU. Similarly the results of prospective quantification performed for the correction of imbalances as the budget balance and public debt in percentage of GDP, the Hellenic Republic needs a period of no less than fifty years to recover the independence and national sovereignty.
This Master Thesis aims to contribute to understanding the crisis in Greece, more specifically, their background, their macroeconomic and public finance characteristics, its framing in Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the main consequences mainly in the countries of southern Europe and Ireland, as well as within the EU and EMU. During a period of twelve years (2000-2011), the Hellenic Republic, macroeconomic indicators, more specifically, private consumption grew at a real annual rate of 1.3% while disposable income decreased at an real annual rate of -0.58%. The investment decreased, unemployment increased, it was necessary more public spending, with public revenue declining, and simultaneously, as a consequence, the budget balance (deficit) as a percentage of GDP rose sharply, the Greek State had to borrow up, culminating in a spiral originated the request for a bail-out to the ECB, the EU and the IMF. The problem in question relates to understanding how Greece could reach a public debt that is currently already about 170% of GDP of the country, and what are the main forms of evolution and consequences in the context of EMU and EU. To this end, a questionnaire was administered online and respondents were specialists of Economy and Public Finance of South and Central Europe. The results show that there are two distinct groups of experts who are distinguished not only by their socio-economic and geographical characteristics, but also by the attitudes and knowledge concerning the origin, management, the relative importance they attach to different fiscal rules and potential solutions as well as the future of Greece within the EMU. Similarly the results of prospective quantification performed for the correction of imbalances as the budget balance and public debt in percentage of GDP, the Hellenic Republic needs a period of no less than fifty years to recover the independence and national sovereignty.
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Orientação: Maria José Santos
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MESTRADO EM GESTÃO, ECONOMIA, ECONOMY, GESTÃO, MANAGEMENT, ORÇAMENTOS, BUDGETS, DÍVIDA PÚBLICA, NATIONAL DEBT, ANÁLISE MULTIVARIADA, MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS, ANÁLISE DE CLUSTERS, CLUSTER ANALYSIS, CRISES ECONÓMICAS, ECONOMIC CRISIS