Avaliação financeira de projetos ESCO baseada no value at risk: estudo de caso numa unidade hoteleira
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2019
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De acordo com muitos defensores da eficiência energética e decisores políticos, as ESCOs (Energy Service Companies), irão desempenhar um papel preponderante no processo de melhoria da eficiência energética das organizações, o que por sua vez irá contribuir para a resolução do problema global da concentração de C02. ESCOs são empresas que, através dum modelo de negócio inovador, definem, implementam e financiam projetos de eficiência energética em instalações de empresas suas clientes, usam o fluxo de receitas associadas às poupanças futuras de energia para remunerar os custos do projeto, e aceitam um certo grau de risco financeiro. As ESCOs enfrentam incertezas e riscos significativos acerca dos fatores que afetam o desempenho dos projetos de eficiência energética e consequentemente dos fluxos financeiros futuros. Por isso, é importante definir métodos que melhorem a compreensão financeira dos valores e riscos envolvidos.
O objetivo deste trabalho consiste em explorar um método capaz para analisar a rendibilidade e risco do investimento em projetos de eficiência energético tipo ESCO, utilizando o método de Monte Carlo e a abordagem de Value at Risk. Com este propósito, foi desenvolvido um estudo de caso numa unidade hoteleira no qual foi analisado um conjunto de medidas de eficiência energética. Os resultados mostram que o método proposto é genericamente eficaz, pois proporciona ao investidor uma compreensão mais clara dos valores, riscos e volatilidades envolvidos.
According to many energy efficiency advocates and policy makers, ESCOs (Energy Service Companies) will play a leading role in the process of improving the energy efficiency of organizations, which in turn will contribute to solving the global problem of concentration of C02. ESCOs are companies that, through an innovative business model, define, implement, and finance energy efficiency projects in their client's facilities, use the revenue stream associated with future energy savings to pay for project costs, and accept a certain degree of financial risk. ESCOs face significant uncertainties and risks about the factors that affect the performance of energy efficiency projects and consequently future financial flows. Therefore, it is important to define methods that improve the financial understanding of the values and risks involved. The objective of this work is to explore a method capable of analyzing the profitability and risk of investment in ESCO energy efficiency projects using the Monte Carlo method and the Value at Risk approach. For this purpose, a case study was developed at a hotel unit in which a set of energy efficiency measures were analyzed. The results show that the proposed method is generally effective because it provides investors with a clearer understanding of the values, risks and volatilities involved.
According to many energy efficiency advocates and policy makers, ESCOs (Energy Service Companies) will play a leading role in the process of improving the energy efficiency of organizations, which in turn will contribute to solving the global problem of concentration of C02. ESCOs are companies that, through an innovative business model, define, implement, and finance energy efficiency projects in their client's facilities, use the revenue stream associated with future energy savings to pay for project costs, and accept a certain degree of financial risk. ESCOs face significant uncertainties and risks about the factors that affect the performance of energy efficiency projects and consequently future financial flows. Therefore, it is important to define methods that improve the financial understanding of the values and risks involved. The objective of this work is to explore a method capable of analyzing the profitability and risk of investment in ESCO energy efficiency projects using the Monte Carlo method and the Value at Risk approach. For this purpose, a case study was developed at a hotel unit in which a set of energy efficiency measures were analyzed. The results show that the proposed method is generally effective because it provides investors with a clearer understanding of the values, risks and volatilities involved.
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Orientação: Carlos Capelo
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MESTRADO EM CONTABILIDADE E FISCALIDADE, CONTABILIDADE, ANÁLISE DE INVESTIMENTOS, EFICIÊNCIA ENERGÉTICA, ESTUDOS DE CASO, HOTÉIS, ACCOUNTING, INVESTMENTS ANALYSIS, ENERGY EFFICIENCY, CASE STUDIES, HOTELS