O impacto do preço do petróleo: análise da vulnerabilidade dos países exportadores de petróleo
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Data
2019
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Dada a sua importância na economia mundial, o preço do petróleo é uma importante variável para os agentes económicos para tomada de decisões.
As variações dos preços do petróleo influenciam diretamente os mercados financeiros internacionais, o comércio exterior e os investimentos. Compreender como indicadores macroeconómicos respondem a essas variações pode ser de grande valia para formuladores de políticas económicas na tomada de decisões em geral.
A presente investigação incide sobre a Vulnerabilidade Produtiva; comercial; fiscal e Macroeconómica dos países exportadores de petróleo, se propõe a classificar os países exportadores de petróleo quanto a sua vulnerabilidade em relação as variações do preço do petróleo, que abrangem aspetos macroeconómicos, comercial, fiscal e social. Estes indicadores são aplicados aos países da OPEP, os EUA, a Rússia e ao Brasil. Para tal, foram utilizadas a análise descritiva e análise de Clusters.
Da análise dos resultados derivam-se implicações das vulnerabilidades em termos de taxa de crescimento do PIB, taxa de desemprego, maior vulnerabilidade comercial, variação da taxa de câmbio e vulnerabilidade fiscal. Os resultados apontaram que o 4º Cluster, formado pela Venezuela e pela Rússia. apresenta maior exposição a variações no preço do petróleo em termos de taxa de crescimento do PIB, taxa de desemprego e maior vulnerabilidade comercial. O 3º Cluster formado apenas pelo Qatar representa o grupo dos países mais vulneráveis do ponto de vista fiscal. O 2º Cluster formado pelos Estados Unidos da América maior variação da taxa de câmbio. O 1º Cluster formado pelos restantes países apresenta maior variação da taxa de inflação, grande variação na taxa de crescimento do PIB e vulnerabilidade fiscal face a variações do preço do petróleo.
Given its importance in the world economy, the price of oil is an important variable for economic agents for decision-making. Changes in oil prices directly influence international financial markets, foreign trade and investment. Understanding how macroeconomic indicators respond to these variations can be of great value to policymakers in decision-making in general. The present research focuses on Productive Vulnerability; commercial; fiscal and macroeconomic policy of oil-exporting countries, proposes to classify oil-exporting countries as vulnerable to changes in oil prices, which include macroeconomic, trade, fiscal and social aspects. These indicators are applied to OPEC countries, the US, Russia and Brazil. For this, the descriptive analysis and analysis of Clusters were used. From the analysis of the results are derived the implications of vulnerabilities in terms of GDP growth rate, unemployment rate, higher commercial vulnerability, exchange rate variation and fiscal vulnerability. The results pointed out that the 4th Cluster, formed by Venezuela and Russia. shows greater exposure to changes in the price of oil in terms of GDP growth rate, unemployment rate and greater commercial vulnerability. The third Cluster of Qatar alone represents the group of countries most vulnerable from a fiscal point of view. The 2nd Cluster formed by the United States of America increased exchange rate variation. The 1st Cluster formed by the remaining countries shows greater variation in the inflation rate, a large variation in the GDP growth rate and fiscal vulnerability in the face of changes in the price of oil.
Given its importance in the world economy, the price of oil is an important variable for economic agents for decision-making. Changes in oil prices directly influence international financial markets, foreign trade and investment. Understanding how macroeconomic indicators respond to these variations can be of great value to policymakers in decision-making in general. The present research focuses on Productive Vulnerability; commercial; fiscal and macroeconomic policy of oil-exporting countries, proposes to classify oil-exporting countries as vulnerable to changes in oil prices, which include macroeconomic, trade, fiscal and social aspects. These indicators are applied to OPEC countries, the US, Russia and Brazil. For this, the descriptive analysis and analysis of Clusters were used. From the analysis of the results are derived the implications of vulnerabilities in terms of GDP growth rate, unemployment rate, higher commercial vulnerability, exchange rate variation and fiscal vulnerability. The results pointed out that the 4th Cluster, formed by Venezuela and Russia. shows greater exposure to changes in the price of oil in terms of GDP growth rate, unemployment rate and greater commercial vulnerability. The third Cluster of Qatar alone represents the group of countries most vulnerable from a fiscal point of view. The 2nd Cluster formed by the United States of America increased exchange rate variation. The 1st Cluster formed by the remaining countries shows greater variation in the inflation rate, a large variation in the GDP growth rate and fiscal vulnerability in the face of changes in the price of oil.
Descrição
Orientação: Maria Teresa Ribeiro Candeias
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MESTRADO EM GESTÃO, GESTÃO, PETRÓLEO, PREÇOS, INDÚSTRIA PETROLÍFERA, MERCADO PETROLÍFERO, DESEMPREGO, MANAGEMENT, OIL, PRICES, OIL INDUSTRY, OIL MARKET, UNEMPLOYMENT