Futebol : análise do resultado final : estudo de quatro ligas profissionais europeias
Miniatura indisponível
Data
2012
Autores
Título da revista
ISSN da revista
Título do Volume
Editora
Resumo
O resultado final de um jogo de futebol é o culminar de uma sucessão de ações ou comportamentos compostos por decisões e execuções, individuais e interações coletivas, suportadas por um substrato denominado de modelo de jogo de equipa. Deste modo, o resultado de um jogo suporta-se numa lógica complexa de acontecimentos de certa forma previsíveis e imprevisíveis que, na maioria dos casos, a sua justificação se torna difícil de realizar (Castelo, 2011).
Nesta lógica, sendo o futebol de alto nível um desporto que apresenta um baixo resultado, expressando na maioria das vezes, no seu final, valores equilibrados, certas situações e/ou fatores podem adquirir um papel fundamental, influenciando não só a performance dos jogadores, mas também o próprio desfecho final do jogo.
Assim, partindo deste pressuposto, foram definidos para o presente estudo os seguintes objetivos: 1) analisar o resultado final do jogo de acordo com um conjunto de fatores (número de golos por jogo, temporal, missão tática, contextual, casa, liderança e alternância do marcador, temporal crítico e momento crítico); 2) analisar os dados totais da amostra e por ligas europeias (portuguesa, espanhola, inglesa e italiana); 3) verificar se existem diferenças significativas nos fatores analisados, entre as diferentes ligas; 4) identificar os fatores que apresentam maior influência no resultado final do jogo.
A amostra foi constituída pelo registo de dados recolhidos na internet de mil trezentos e oitenta jogos, disputados em quatro das principais ligas europeias (portuguesa, espanhola, inglesa e italiana), referentes à época desportiva 2010/ 2011, tendo em conta dez variáveis. De forma a enquadrar todos os dados necessários, foi elaborado um instrumento ad hoc, constituído por um sistema de categorias, para cada uma das variáveis analisadas. Para o tratamento e análise de dados utilizou-se o programa SPSS v.20.0, com recurso à análise descritiva (média, desvio padrão e moda), análise de variância (teste Anova oneway e Post hoc tests) e análise discriminante stepwise com o método do Λ de Wilks.
Os resultados obtidos sugerem que existem diferenças significativas entre pelo menos três ligas, em todas as variáveis apresentadas, excetuando a variável fator temporal (i.e., minutos dos golos). Foi verificado igualmente que, existem fatores que assumem um papel fundamental/ decisivo no desfecho final dos jogos e que, se forem relacionadas entre si,apresentam um maior poder discriminante. Assim, os fatores casa, momento crítico e missão tática foram os que apresentaram uma maior preponderância, em termos globais da amostra, sobre os resultados finais dos jogos.
Nas ligas analisadas, os fatores que apresentaram maior poder discriminante nos resultados foram: casa, momento crítico, alternância e missão tática, na liga portuguesa; casa, momento crítico e missão tática, na liga espanhola; e casa, momento crítico e alternância, nas ligas, inglesa e italiana.
The final outcome of a football game is the culmination of a sequence of actions or behaviours composed of decisions and executions (individual and collective interactions), supported by a substrate called team game model. Thus, the outcome of a game is based on a complex logic of events somewhat predictable and unpredictable that, in most cases, is difficult to justify (Castelo, 2011). Following this logic, top-level football being a sport that normally presents low scores, which normally expresses in the vast majority of situations the balanced values of teams, certain situations and / or factors may acquire a key role, thereby influencing not only the performance of the players, but the final outcome of the game itself. So, on this assumption, the following objectives were defined for this study : 1) to analyse the final result of the game according to a set of factors (number of goals per game, temporal, tactical mission, contextual, home, leadership and scoreboard changes, critical temporal and critical moment), 2) analyse the all the data within the sample and per European leagues (Portuguese, Spanish, English and Italian), 3) check whether there are significant differences in the factors analysed between the different leagues; 4) identify factors that have greater influence on the final result of the game. The sample consisted of data collected and registered from the Internet, one thousand three hundred and eighty games, played in four major European leagues (Portuguese, Spanish, English and Italian), referring to the 2010/2011 season, and taking into account ten variables. In order to fit all the required data, an ad hoc an instrument was prepared comprising a system of categories for each variable analysed. For data processing and analysis the SPSS v.20.0 program was used, using descriptive analysis (mean, standard deviation and mode), variance analysis (oneway Anova and post hoc tests) and stepwise discriminant analysis with Wilks’s Λ method. The results suggest that there are significant differences between at least three leagues in all variables shown, except the variable temporal factor (ie, minutes that goals are scored). It was also found that there are factors that play a fundamental/decisive role in the final result of the games, and that if they are related to each other they have a greater discriminating influence. Thus, factors home, tactical mission and critical moment were those that showed greatest influence on the final result of the games within the overall sample. In the leagues analysed, the factors that most influence the results were: home, critical moment and tactical mission in the Portuguese league; home, tactical mission and critical moment in the Spanish league, and home, critical moment scoreboard changes and tactical mission in the English and Italian leagues. Keywords: football, game analysis, result analysis, final result, temporal factor, tactical mission factor, contextual factor, leadership factor, scoreboard changes factor, home factor, critical temporal factor and critical moment factor.
The final outcome of a football game is the culmination of a sequence of actions or behaviours composed of decisions and executions (individual and collective interactions), supported by a substrate called team game model. Thus, the outcome of a game is based on a complex logic of events somewhat predictable and unpredictable that, in most cases, is difficult to justify (Castelo, 2011). Following this logic, top-level football being a sport that normally presents low scores, which normally expresses in the vast majority of situations the balanced values of teams, certain situations and / or factors may acquire a key role, thereby influencing not only the performance of the players, but the final outcome of the game itself. So, on this assumption, the following objectives were defined for this study : 1) to analyse the final result of the game according to a set of factors (number of goals per game, temporal, tactical mission, contextual, home, leadership and scoreboard changes, critical temporal and critical moment), 2) analyse the all the data within the sample and per European leagues (Portuguese, Spanish, English and Italian), 3) check whether there are significant differences in the factors analysed between the different leagues; 4) identify factors that have greater influence on the final result of the game. The sample consisted of data collected and registered from the Internet, one thousand three hundred and eighty games, played in four major European leagues (Portuguese, Spanish, English and Italian), referring to the 2010/2011 season, and taking into account ten variables. In order to fit all the required data, an ad hoc an instrument was prepared comprising a system of categories for each variable analysed. For data processing and analysis the SPSS v.20.0 program was used, using descriptive analysis (mean, standard deviation and mode), variance analysis (oneway Anova and post hoc tests) and stepwise discriminant analysis with Wilks’s Λ method. The results suggest that there are significant differences between at least three leagues in all variables shown, except the variable temporal factor (ie, minutes that goals are scored). It was also found that there are factors that play a fundamental/decisive role in the final result of the games, and that if they are related to each other they have a greater discriminating influence. Thus, factors home, tactical mission and critical moment were those that showed greatest influence on the final result of the games within the overall sample. In the leagues analysed, the factors that most influence the results were: home, critical moment and tactical mission in the Portuguese league; home, tactical mission and critical moment in the Spanish league, and home, critical moment scoreboard changes and tactical mission in the English and Italian leagues. Keywords: football, game analysis, result analysis, final result, temporal factor, tactical mission factor, contextual factor, leadership factor, scoreboard changes factor, home factor, critical temporal factor and critical moment factor.
Descrição
Orientação : Jorge Fernando Ferreira Castelo
Palavras-chave
DESPORTO, FUTEBOL, LIDERANÇA, SPORT, FOOTBALL, LEADERSHIP, MESTRADO EM TREINO DESPORTIVO, EDUCAÇÃO FÍSICA, PHYSICAL EDUCATION, TREINO DESPORTIVO, SPORTS COACHING